But I am an exception. People who are total newbies can't think for themselves and easily get confused. So they cant really use KDE/GNOME which have gotchas. This is where Windows UI scores.
People who are total newbies and can't think for themselves have the very same problem even with windows (xp or otherwise). So windows UI doesn't really score there.
Also, you're confusing between computer literate users, regular computer users and power users.
A computer literate user simply uses the applications, not the OS per say. Ask a user of this category what file associations are and where the control panel is and you'll get a blank stare.
For these users switching is slow, but the easiest. They often don't have the mental block of "Windows vs Linux". Their question always is "Will I get my Emails?" or "Will I get to chat?" or "Will my documents remain intact?" and not "Will I be able to change file associations with ease?"
Regular computer users are those who have had a lot of experience using computers for daily work (e.g. your regular DTP guy or the home user lovingly called by all as the home luser ;-) ). These guys have "hands on" experience of the lame OS (windows) and its ways and hence complain if it doesn't work the same way as windows. For example, where the heck is my C:\ drive in linux?? These are also the guys who tend to assume they know a lot about computer systems and end up with loads of spyware/viruses/trojans courtesy of all the silly shareware programs they download and crack sites they visit.
The above description is highly stereotypical, but such users are the most difficult to migrate away from windows. These users have not really understood the computer; they simply know how to do their work through routine. one may argue that these guys also install programs. But look closely. Installation is defined as "click on the next and finish buttons". Since they have to actually "think" to use the programs anywhere else they find it more difficult to switch over to any other OS.
A power user is a refined form of the regular computer user. He/She has channeled his energies into constructive working (moreso exploring) on the OS
These guys do think when they use their computers. These are the guys who will be impacted by the file associations and control panel problems. In these guys the main differentiating factor is willingness to explore anything else. Those who are comfortable in their zone will crib at the first opportunity and quit. Then there's the others who try to give up their old habits and learn the new ones.
There, you can all wake up now ;-)
Siddhesh